Week 1 of the 2017 AFL Finals is here and all teams are coming off a one week break. The week off is a blessing to many teams who are sweating on injuries to key players, many of which are expected to play this week.
The first week of finals looks tough for betting and we’ll be leaning with the value option in most games.
We have a 4-leg multi at the bottom of our match write ups that we think is worth a small wager.
Read on to find out our picks for week 1 of the 2017 AFL finals series!
Please note: these are our early picks prior to team announcements on Wednesday and Thursday night. In some matches, our betting tip relies heavily on a few important players coming back into their teams so it will be important to keep an eye on the “ins” for each teams.
All odds are with Sportsbet – our No. 1 rated bookmaker. New signups can claim a $501* bonus bet with Sportsbet by clicking HERE.
19:50 Adelaide ($1.50) v Greater Western Sydney ($2.60) @ Adelaide Oval
The finals kick off in Adelaide on Thursday night with Adelaide taking on GWS.
Adelaide vice captain Rory Sloane is expected to be named after having his appendix removed last weekend. Captain Tex Walker will be back in the team after being rested in their final round loss to West Coast.
GWS aren’t sweating on any major injuries but will need to improve on their round 23 performance against Geelong. They were outclassed all day against the Cats in Geelong, and Adelaide in Adelaide might just be tougher.
GWS have been a bit up and down this year and I don’t think we’ve seen them at their best yet. If the Giants can put it all together and bring their best footy to the finals series, they will be very hard to beat.
We believe GWS are the better side on paper and can overrun the Crows in front of their home fans.
Betting tip: GWS 1-39 @ $3.25 (BET NOW)
GWS by 22
19:50 Geelong ($1.74) v Richmond ($2.10) @ MCG
This looks like the match of the round (apologies Adelaide and GWS).
The top-two Victorian teams going head-to-head in Friday night footy at the “G”.
Dangerfield vs Dusty.
Geelong were outstanding in their win over GWS in round 23. Geelong kicked away in the third term and GWS couldn’t manage to bring it back. They will take a lot of confidence into this game, but Richmond won’t be short on confidence, either.
Joel Selwood appears an almost certain starter after undergoing ankle surgery only three weeks ago. Geelong will need his hardness and pressure at the contest.
The Tigers have finished the season on a strong note, however, their last loss came in round 21 at the hands of the Cats.
Josh Caddy also appears to have recovered from a hamstring injury and should give the Tigers some extra firepower up forward.
I think Richmond can cause an upset here and get the job done against the Cats. I can’t help but think Richmond truly believe it’s their year and they will do anything to achieve the ultimate success.
Betting tip: Richmond 1-39 @ $2.60 (BET NOW)
Richmond by 18
16:20 Sydney ($1.20) v Essendon ($4.60) @ SCG
Sydney had the perfect game leading up to finals with a solid victory over Carlton in which Buddy Franklin booted 10 goals to steal the Coleman Medal from Josh Kennedy.
The Swans earned the home final after being the most dominant team in the competition since round seven, but they have had a few close scares along the way – one of them being at the SCG against the Bombers where they kicked a goal after the siren to get the win.
The Swans will have some nice selection dilemmas this week, with Dan Hannebery the only certainty to return.
The Bombers team list is a big watch this week with possible key inclusions being Michael Hurley, Cale Hooker, and Orazio Fantasia. Getting these players back into the side is key for the Bombers chances here.
The Bombers shouldn’t be put off by their loss to the Swans last time they played, in fact, they should have some confidence knowing they were the better side for most of the game, but their tactics were questionable late in the game.
It all depends on team announcements for this game; if we see the key Bomber inclusions, we’ll go with them to cause the upset of the week and go one step closer to a fairy tale end to the season.
Betting tip: Essendon 1-39 @ $6.00 (BET NOW)
Essendon by 10*
*subject to team announcements.
19:50 Port Adelaide ($1.46) v West Coast ($2.75) @ Adelaide Oval
Port Adelaide were ruthless in their last round demolition of the Suns in what would be a good confidence booster heading into finals.
At their best, Port Adelaide have all the tools to match it with the best and their big forwards have been in red hot form in recent weeks. They’ll need that continue this week in what will be a bit of a shoot out against the Eagles.
West Coast needed to beat Adelaide by around 25 points to sneak into the eight in the final round, and to the distress of Melbourne fans, they did it!
They’ll have some confidence from that performance and it’s a big bonus for them that they don’t have to travel to Melbourne this week.
The Eagles will really need to be at their best to be competitive this week and we just don’t have the confidence that they can match it with Port Adelaide’s best footy.
This is our most confident pick of the week.
Betting tip: Port Adelaide 1-39 @ $2.10 (BET NOW) and also take overs in the total match points at 169.5 @ $1.90 (seems very low for these two sides). Seems a good option for a Sportsbet same game multi.
Port Adelaide by 30
2017 Finals – Week 1 AFL multi bet:
We are going with a four-leg multi this week and will make it a small $20 wager:
GWS 1-39 @ $3.25
Richmond 1-39 @ $2.60
Essendon 1-39 @ $6.00
Port Adelaide 1-39 @ $2.10
Total odds = $106.47
A $20 wager would pay out $2,129.40 at current odds, if successful.
Once again, all odds are with Sportsbet – our No. 1 rated bookmaker. New signups can claim a $501* bonus bet with Sportsbet by clicking HERE.