Round 4 of the 2017 AFL season over the Easter long weekend has some great match ups but let’s recap the previous round first.
We only managed to pick 4/9 last week in what turned out to be a great week for underdog tippers and we were left with lots of questions.
Are the Dockers and Suns about to turn a corner? Are Hawthorn and Sydney really that bad? Are Richmond the real deal??
Read on to find our expert tips for round 4 of the 2017 AFL Premiership season.
Please be aware that these are our early picks prior to team announcements on Wednesday and Thursday night. Odds may also change significantly depending on any major selection shocks. Check back Wednesday and Thursday nights for any late mail changes to our round 4 tips after we’ve assessed all team lists.
All odds are with Sportsbet – our No. 1 rated bookmaker. New signups can claim a $501* bonus bet with Sportsbet by clicking HERE.
West Coast ($1.37) v Sydney ($3.09)
West Coast were ordinary in their loss to Richmond at the MCG on the weekend but are back home on Thursday night this week to kick off the Easter weekend of football.
Sydney surged late last week but just couldn’t get over the line against Collingwood last week in Buddy Franklin’s 250th.
Having the big trip to Perth to play on a Thursday night doesn’t do the struggling Swans any favours and we’ll pick West Coast to get back in the winner’s books this week.
West Coast by 25.
North Melbourne ($3.62) v Western Bulldogs ($1.29)
The Roos have been playing some really competitive football but their inexperience is costing them at important moments.
The Bulldogs were beaten at their own game last week by a ferociously competitive, young Fremantle side.
I think North Melbourne’s style matches up well against the Bulldogs and expect this to be a tight game, with the Dogs just doing enough in the end.
We’ll pick the Bulldogs to win but the Roos with the +22.5 start @ $1.90.
Western Bulldogs by 12.
Melbourne ($1.36) v Fremantle ($3.18)
Interesting game this one, with Melbourne is now without Gawn, Lewis, and Hogan – arguably their three most important players.
I think it’s safe to say Sandilands will dominate the ruck contest this week and give Freo first use of the ball on most occasions.
If Fremantle can bring the same level of intensity and aggression they had at home last week, they’ll win this.
We’ll tip the upset here.
Fremantle by 10.
Greater Western Sydney ($1.30) v Port Adelaide ($3.55)
GWS did what they had to last week to get the 4 points over the Roos, while Port were brave in defeat against the high-flying Crows.
We’re liking the value of Port Adelaide at $3.55, despite losing Paddy Ryder for one match due to suspension.
We’ll tip GWS to get over the line in an exciting game that could end up being the match of the round.
GWS by 12.
Adelaide ($1.12) v Essendon ($6.40)
It’s safe to say that Adelaide are a legitimate Premiership threat this year and are the team to beat early in the season.
Essendon are still a difficult team to judge. Their performance in the wet against Carlton was terrible but I wouldn’t give it too much weight. They still have more upside than most teams in the competition but probably won’t find it until the latter part of the season.
Adelaide in Adelaide will be far too good for the Bombers this week and win comfortably, but we’ll pick Essendon at the current +38.5 line.
Adelaide by 34.
Carlton ($2.10) v Gold Coast ($1.75)
Carlton played the better football in wet conditions to get over the line against Essendon on the weekend with captain Marc Murphy continuing to lead by example.
After a week with the spotlight on Gary Ablett and the Suns, they demolished the struggling Hawks to pick up their first win for the season.
This is a good match up with both teams being inconsistent. This game will depend on who turns up to play on the day, but we’ll tip the Suns to make it two in a row with the wet conditions last week possibly taking it out of the young Carlton players.
Gold Coast by 24.
Collingwood ($1.80) v St Kilda ($2.02)
The Pies held on to beat Sydney by a point last Friday night to claim their first win of the season, despite playing some pretty good football.
The Saints did enough in the end against the Lions last week, but it was far from an impressive victory.
We’ll tip Collingwood to make it two on the trot in a tight match.
Collingwood by 10.
Brisbane ($3.08) v Richmond ($1.38)
Brisbane have had severe fade outs in the first three matches of the season but still managed to come away with one win. They’ll need the ability to fight out the final quarter if they are to win more games.
Richmond have won 3/3 and are looking a much stronger team than previous years.
The Tigers should make it 4/4 this week and run away to a comfortable at the Gabba.
Richmond by 42.
Hawthorn ($2.94) v Geelong ($1.41)
Both teams are at opposite ends of the ladder.
Geelong are 3/3 but are not playing their best football. They have a lot of improvement left in them and they’ll need to start finding it or it’ll start costing them a few matches.
Hawthorn have played nowhere near their potential and have started the year to be 0/3. Could this be the week where things finally start to click for the Hawks? We think it’ll take a few more weeks still…
We’ll pick Geelong to keep their winning start alive and account for the Hawks on the traditional Easter Monday blockbuster.
Geelong by 30.
Once again, all odds are with Sportsbet – our No. 1 rated bookmaker. New signups can claim a $501* bonus bet with Sportsbet by clicking HERE.