It’s round 21 of the 2017 AFL season and we are at the business end of the season where every game is important in the final positions of deciding the top eight.
There have been a few big suspensions come through this afternoon and we don’t expect any challenges at the tribunal on Tuesday night. There are also a few big injuries that will have some impact on the outcome of matches this week.
We think we’ve found some nice betting value in the margin and total points markets this week, but as we recommended last week, keep the stakes small again.
Our single bet of the week is a $5 chance this week and at the bottom of our match previews you can find our four-leg $62 multi for the week!
Read on to find out what we like for round 21 of the 2017 AFL season!
Please note: these are our early picks prior to team announcements on Thursday night. Check back on Thursday night for any changes to the tips due to any shock ins and outs and late injury news.
All odds are with Sportsbet – our No. 1 rated bookmaker. New signups can claim a $501* bonus bet with Sportsbet by clicking HERE.
19:50 Western Bulldogs ($2.15) v Greater Western Sydney ($1.71) @ Etihad Stadium
Friday night footy is at Etihad Stadium this week and we have a reply of last years preliminary final.
The Dogs wasted a lot of chances against the Lions last week and just scraped home with the win. They will need to lift this week against GWS and they will have to do it without key defender, Easton Wood, who will miss a few weeks with a hamstring injury.
GWS were much improved last week against the Demons with Brett Deledio getting through his first game for the club. We haven’t seen GWS at their best since early in the season and they should be beginning to peak again as we head into finals.
This will be a great Friday night game but we think GWS will get over the line in a good contest and put the pressure back on the Bulldogs in the next two weeks to make the finals.
Betting tip: GWS 1-39 @ $2.30 (BET NOW)
GWS by 24
13:45 Sydney ($1.11) v Fremantle ($6.70) @ SCG
Sydney were too good for Geelong in Geelong last Friday night. Geelong were missing superstar Patrick Dangerfield, but the Swans were without Kennedy (who will be back this week) and Buddy had a very quiet game.
Sydney still have another gear to find and playing back at home should help them find it as we get closer to finals.
Fremantle are starting to play with much better consistency and Nat Fyfe is getting back to his best. They’ll need everyone firing if they are to challenge the Swans, but we think the Swans will be too good.
Sydney will win this one. We think the lines and the margins will be too close to bet on in this match so we are going with overs in the total points market as the small betting play for this game.
Betting tip: Total game points over 171.5 @ $1.90 (BET NOW)
Sydney by 40
14:10 Geelong ($2.30) v Richmond ($1.63) @ Simonds Stadium
This was shaping to be a great game but Geelong have lost captain Joel Selwood for at least three weeks to an ankle injury and full forward Tom Hawkins for two weeks due to suspension.
The plus for Geelong is that they will gain Patrick Dangerfield back this week, but they face an uphill battle against the in-form Tigers.
Richmond dominated the Hawks last week are likely be stronger this week with the inclusion on Jack Riewoldt who should make his comeback from a freak eye injury.
Caddy was brilliant last week and Dusty continues to show why he is the Brownlow Medal favourite.
Will we get to see Dusty and Danger go head to head?
This is our pick of the week. We are taking Richmond at $5 to beat Geelong by 40+. We feel the outs are too big for Geelong against a quality side in Richmond, and Richmond should really run away with it in the end.
Betting tip: Richmond 40+ @ $5 (BET NOW)
Richmond by 48
16:35 Brisbane ($1.78) v Gold Coast ($2.05) @ Gabba
Brisbane put in a great effort against the Bulldogs last week after a sluggish opening quarter and would’ve been disappointed to lose in the end.
They are at home again this week against lesser opposition and they will get a big chance to move off the bottom of the ladder. Whether they win this one or not, the future is looking bright for the Lions.
The Suns got back a few star players last week but were outclassed by Fremantle in Perth. They have a short drive up the highway this week and the local Queensland derby always brings out the best in both teams.
I like the way the young Lions are playing and can’t go past tipping them to get a much deserved win here.
Betting tip: Brisbane 1-39 @ $2.40 (BET NOW)
Brisbane by 22
19:25 Essendon ($2.85) v Adelaide ($1.43) @ Etihad Stadium
The Bombers were very disappointing against Carlton last week but managed to kick the last three goals of the game to steal the win – and a spot in the eight!
The Bombers will be missing Zach Merritt due to suspension, which is a major blow to their midfield.
Adelaide put on a master class against Port Adelaide last Sunday afternoon and this game should help them cement top spot on the ladder.
Adelaide should be a safe bet here, however, if the Bombers show up on the night, their best is good enough to challenge Adelaide. The Bombers will be desperate to keep this game tight as they won’t want to lose much percentage.
Betting tip: Adelaide 1-39 @ $2.25 (BET NOW)
Adelaide by 28
19:40 West Coast ($1.16) v Carlton ($5.30) @ Domain Stadium
The Eagles flopped again in Melbourne with their loss to the Saints last week. They now face a tough ask to make the finals and they will need to win this one by a big, percentage-boosting margin to keep their hopes alive.
Carlton were allowed to play the game on their terms last week and almost beat the Bombers. Playing West Coast in Perth is a different story and I don’t think they will get the game on their terms this week.
West Coast will win this one but we don’t like the margin markets here so we’ll take overs in the total match points as the betting play for this game.
Betting tip: Total game points over 159.5 @ $1.90 (BET NOW)
West Coast by 40
13:10 Melbourne ($1.63) v St Kilda ($2.30) @ MCG
This is basically an early elimination final! The loser here will not be able to make finals so we expect it to be an absolute cracker!
The Demons were beaten by a much-improved GWS in Canberra last week. Back to the MCG this week is a big positive and Nathan Jones will only be better for having his first game back out of the way.
The Saints never gave up against the Eagles last week and dominated the play in the final quarter to get the win and keep their finals hopes alive.
Very tough game to pick! For tipping, we’ll take the Demons. For betting we’ll take either team to win by less than 19.5. This is our second best pick of the week!
Betting tip: Either team to win by less then 19.5 @ $2.10 (BET NOW)
Melbourne by 7
15:20 Hawthorn ($1.23) v North Melbourne ($4.20) @ University of Tasmania
The Hawks were never really in the match against the Tigers last week but they face easier opposition here and regain the services of Luke Hodge.
Both teams have played their share of football in Tasmania, but we’ll give the Tasmanian edge to the Hawks .
North Melbourne were smashed by Collingwood last week and were always going to find it tough when they lost Ben Brown, who was knocked out in a tackle. It’s likely he’ll be rested here, which makes things even tougher for the Roos.
Both teams are always full of fight but but Hawks should get the win here.
Betting tip: Hawthorn 1-39 @ $2.20 (BET NOW)
Hawthorn by 26
16:40 Port Adelaide ($1.36) v Collingwood ($3.16) @ Adelaide Oval
Port Adelaide will want to make up for last weeks disappointing performance, but it won’t be easy against the Pies.
A loss for Port here will really put the pressure on in the final two rounds, while a win here almost cements their spot in the top eight.
The Pies will be without ruckman Brody Grundy who is serving a two game suspension for his tackle on Ben Brown last week. He’s a big loss and the Pies will need to be at their best to challenge Port Adelaide.
This should be a good contest but Port should run away with a comfortable win in the end.
Betting tip: Port Adelaide 1-39 @ $2.10 (BET NOW)
Port Adelaide by 30
Round 21 AFL multi bet:
We are going with a four-leg multi this week and will keep the betting stake at $50:
GWS 1-39 @ $2.30
Richmond 40+ @ $5.00
Brisbane 1-39 @ $2.40
Adelaide 1-39 @ $2.25
Total odds = $62.10
A $50 wager would pay out $3,105 at current odds, if successful.
Once again, all odds are with Sportsbet – our No. 1 rated bookmaker. New signups can claim a $501* bonus bet with Sportsbet by clicking HERE.