Round 20 of the 2017 AFL season is shaping to be a cracker with a lot of important matches and a few upsets on the cards.
There is a bit more separation in the ladder at the moment and teams that are currently in the eight will be looking to cement their spot, while those teams that are just outside the eight will be looking to make one last play to make finals.
We think we’ve found some nice betting value in the 1-39 and 40+ margin markets again this week, however, we recommend keeping the stakes small this week as we can see a number of upsets happening.
At the bottom of our match previews you can find our five-leg $50 multi for the week!
Read on to find out what we like for round 20 of the 2017 AFL season!
Please note: these are our early picks prior to team announcements on Thursday night. Check back on Thursday night for any changes to the tips due to any shock ins and outs, although, we aren’t expecting to see any major surprise inclusions this week.
All odds are with Sportsbet – our No. 1 rated bookmaker. New signups can claim a $501* bonus bet with Sportsbet by clicking HERE.
19:50 Geelong ($1.92) v Sydney ($1.92) @ Simonds Stadium
Friday night footy is in Geelong this week where we get to see two of the form teams of the comp go head-to-head.
The big news for Geelong is that they will be without Patrick Dangerfield who is serving a one match suspension for his tackle on Matthew Kreuzer. He leaves a big hole in the Geelong midfield, as explosive, goal-kicking midfielders are hard to come by.
Sydney’s lasts two losses have been the Hawks who seem to have a mental edge over them this year. Last week’s loss saw them slip back to the pack of teams fighting it out for a spot in the eight. A win here will take a bit of pressure off in the final rounds of the season.
This will be a great game but we think the Swans will come away with a narrow victory over Geelong without Dangerfield.
Betting tip: Sydney 1-39 @ $2.40 (BET NOW)
Sydney by 18
13:45 Greater Western Sydney ($1.49) v Melbourne ($2.65) @ Manuka Oval
GWS were pushed hard against Fremantle last week but lifted in the final term when the match was on the line. The big news for the Giants is that they will be missing Jeremy Cameron for the next three weeks due to a hamstring injury.
The Demons will be filthy with their loss to the Roos last week and will come out fighting against the Giants this week. The next few weeks are huge for the future of the club and they deserve to play finals this year. Captain Nathan Jones and midfielder Bernie Vince are back into the side this week but Hogan will be out for a few weeks with a broken collar bone.
This will be a close one but we’ll give the slight edge to the Giants who have been under-performing in recent weeks. They still have a lot of upside, but will we get to see it this week?
Betting tip: GWS 1-39 @ $2.20 (BET NOW)
GWS by 28
14:10 Essendon ($1.26) v Carlton ($3.90) @ MCG
Essendon got a bit of a wake-up call in last weeks loss to the Dogs. Their poor foot skills cost them and so did letting Jason Johannisen of the leash. The Bomber’s tactics may need to change if they are to be a serious threat and they may need to start putting a hard tag on key players of the opposition. Tagging Bryce Gibbs (as Brisbane did two weeks ago) would be a good test.
Carlton were well and truly outclassed against Geelong last week and may be without Matthew Kreuzer this week due to concussion. He would be a massive loss to the Blues and make an Essendon win an almost certainty.
We’re tipping this game as if Kreuzer is out and we’ll take Essendon to bounce back with a big win. If Kreuzer is confirmed out, expect these odds to be slashed!
Betting tip: Essendon 40+ @ $2.70 (BET NOW)
Essendon by 52
16:35 Brisbane ($4.45) v Western Bulldogs ($1.21) @ Gabba
Brisbane were soundly beaten against the Eagles in the west last week but we can expect a better showing at he Gabba. We are also expecting to see up to five changes this week with Dayne Zorko back into the side after serving a one game suspension.
The Bulldogs were simply brilliant in the final minutes of the game against Essendon last week where they kicked four quick goals to come away with a 30 point win. In reality, the game was much closer than that. I don’t think Johanissen gets off the leash in this game.
I like the way the Lions match up against the Bulldogs and this game will be a fierce battle. We’ll take the Bulldogs to win a game that will be tougher than they might expect.
Betting tip: Western Bulldogs 1-39 @ $2.20 (BET NOW)
Western Bulldogs by 18
19:25 North Melbourne ($2.55) v Collingwood ($1.52) @ Etihad Stadium
The Roos managed to win a close one against the Demons last week and they face a Collingwood side who is in pretty good form at the moment. There’s a lot to like about the Roos, in particular, the way Ben Brown is playing at the moment. Another big performance from him and the Roos can win this one.
Collingwood lead the Crows for almost the entire game last week but an after the siren goal to Knight tied the game. The Pies were devastated – and rightfully so! Finals are mathematically still possible if a number of results go their way, but the focus is probably more on next year for the Pies.
This should be another good one but we’ll side with the Pies to come away with what will be a hard fought win.
Betting tip: Collingwood 1-39 @ $2.25 (BET NOW)
Collingwood by 30
19:40 Fremantle ($1.40) v Gold Coast ($3.00) @ Domain Stadium
Fremantle were looking good against GWS last week but were no match for them in the final quarter. While finals are likely to be out of the question, they are back at home this week in what is a more winnable game for them.
Gold Coast were beaten by Richmond at home last week and face a tough trip west this week. Ablett is a possible inclusion this week but the Suns could stay on the side of caution and not want their star player to take the long trip. Update: the early mail is that Ablett and May will line up for the Suns. This does not change out betting tip on this match.
We’re confident of a Fremantle victory here and we’ll take them 1-39 for the betting play. One of the more confident plays of the week.
Betting tip: Fremantle 1-39 @ $2.00 (BET NOW)
Fremantle by 24
13:10 St Kilda ($1.81) v West Coast ($2.00) @ Etihad Stadium
The Saints were desperately unlucky in their two point loss to Port Adelaide who kicked two goals in the final minute to steal victory. With Nick Riewoldt announcing his retirement from the game yesterday, the Saints will want to send him out by at least playing finals this year and this is a must-win game!!
West Coast got the job done against an undermanned Brisbane side last week but are travelling to Melbourne this week, which has been their undoing this season.
There is a lot to play for in this game – a win here almost means the Eagles are a certainty to play finals and a win to the Saints keeps the dream alive.
We’ll pick West Coast to get a rare victory in Melbourne this week, in what will be a great game! Small stakes for this game!
Betting tip: West Coast 1-39 @ $2.50 (BET NOW)
West Coast by 14
15:20 Richmond ($1.74) v Hawthorn ($2.10) @ MCG
Another cracking game at the MCG on a Sunday afternoon! Both teams are in good form and the Hawks (somehow!) can still play finals if they win games and all the cards fall into place.
Richmond had a decent win over the Suns last week but are facing the in-form Hawks who are surging late in the season. Richmond’s lineup should be unchanged and I would expect Dustin Martin to get a bit of attention from
Luke Hodge this week… UPDATE: Luke Hodge had his suspension upheld and will not line up to face the Tigers. Jack Riewoldt is almost certainly going to miss another week week while he recovers from a freak eye injury.
The Hawks are flying after taking down the Swans last week who were the form team of the competition. If they can replicate that performance here, they are a big chance to win. Hodge is a big out.
We’ll tip the Hawks to continue their strong performances and get the win here. Our betting tip is either team to win by less than 19.5 and this is another one of our confident plays of the week!
Betting tip: Either team under 19.5 @ $2.10 (BET NOW)
Hawthorn by 8
16:40 Adelaide ($1.54) v Port Adelaide ($2.50) @ Adelaide Oval
The Adelaide local derby – what a game to finish off the round!
The Crows managed to steal a draw against the Pies last week and will want to put in a better four quarter performance this week. Eddie Betts should come back into the side after taking the week off to recover from having his appendix removed.
Port Adelaide never gave up last week and stole a late victory over the Saints by kicking two goals in the final minute. They face a tougher opposition here but their best is definitely good enough to win this one.
Another close one but we’ll go with the the Crows who have been the better team this year.
Betting tip: Adelaide 1-39 @ $2.10 (BET NOW)
Adelaide by 18
Round 19 AFL multi bet:
We are going with a five-leg multi this week and will keep the betting stake at $50:
Sydney 1-39 @ $2.40
GWS 1-39 @ $2.20
Collingwood 1-39 @ $2.25
Fremantle 1-39 @ $2.00
Adelaide 1-39 @ $2.10
Total odds = $49.90
A $50 wager would pay out $2,495 at current odds, if successful.
Once again, all odds are with Sportsbet – our No. 1 rated bookmaker. New signups can claim a $501* bonus bet with Sportsbet by clicking HERE.