Round 18 of the 2017 AFL season is another do-or-die week for the teams in the logjam in the middle of the ladder and it’s just as important for the teams at the top who are fighting for home finals and a double-chance!
Last round was a great week for punters if you happened to get on our tips. If you were to place a $100 bet on each of our picks, you would’ve profited a tidy $610. Our bet of the week was also successful with the with the GWS vs Sydney game being decided by less than 19.5 points – well done if you loaded up on that one!
We’ve found some nice value again in the margin markets again this week and we’ve picked out another bet of the week.
At the bottom of our match previews you can find our 4-leg $25 multi for the week!
Read on to find out what we like for round 18 of the 2017 AFL season!
Please note: these are our early picks prior to team announcements on Thursday night. Check back on Thursday night for any changes to the tips due to any shock ins and outs, although, we aren’t expecting to see any major surprise inclusions this week.
All odds are with Sportsbet – our No. 1 rated bookmaker. New signups can claim a $501* bonus bet with Sportsbet by clicking HERE.
19:50 Adelaide ($1.52) v Geelong ($2.55) @ Adelaide Oval
Friday night footy heads to the Adelaide Oval this week for a top of the table clash between the Crows and the Cats.
Adelaide were too good for the Demons last week in Darwin – coming away with a 44-point win. Rory Sloane is the only question mark this week. He was knocked out in a vicious tackle and the Crows will err on the side of caution this close to finals.
Geelong were in another classic against the Hawks last week and there is an injury cloud around Dangerfield this week. It’s likely he’ll play, but he may spend more time forward and he is obviously a massive loss to the Geelong midfield.
Check team announcements for this one. Tough betting match but we’ll take Adelaide to come away with the win at home.
Betting tip: Adelaide 1-39 @ $2.20 (BET NOW)
Adelaide by 26
13:45 Essendon ($1.27) v North Melbourne ($3.75) @ Etihad Stadium
Essendon (and Joe Daniher) were simply sensational last week in their dominant victory over the Saints. The Bombers are well and truly in the finals mix but they will need to make it three wins in a row to keep those finals hopes alive. Jobe Watson should be back in the side this week after having the week off.
The Roos have had a tough season with many close losses but they showed signs of a late season fade last week against Port Adelaide. They will need to be on their game to keep the scoreline respectable this week against the Bombers.
The Bombers appear to be hitting their straps and I think they’ll continue their run towards the finals with a big win over the Roos.
Betting tip: Essendon 40+ @ $2.20 (BET NOW)
Essendon by 56
14:10 Melbourne ($2.30) v Port Adelaide ($1.62) @ MCG
The Demons were below their best in Darwin last week but are a chance to get back a few star players this week – keep a close eye on team announcements for the likes of Jones, Viney, and Watts.
Port Adelaide are now in fourth place on the ladder and a win here will be important to help secure that spot.
Both teams will be desperate for the win and I expect this to be a tough slog. The Dees are every chance to win this one but I’ll go with Port to come away with a hard-fought win.
Betting tip: Port Adelaide 1-39 @ $2.30 (BET NOW)
Port Adelaide by 20
16:35 Western Bulldogs ($1.37) v Gold Coast ($3.10) @ Cazaly’s Stadium
The Bulldogs scrapped out the win over Carlton last week and are still clinging to hopes of playing finals. They face the Suns this week in Cairns in what could be difficult conditions for them to overcome.
The Suns would be disappointed in their 15-point loss to the Pies last week and seem to find some form in Cairns. The odds for the Suns are good in this one and I think the fact that it’s being played in Cairns makes the $3.10 odds quite attractive.
We won’t tip the Suns to win, but we’ll take them at the +18.5 line and tip the Dogs to win in a close one.
Betting tip: Gold Coast at the +18.5 line @ $1.92 (BET NOW)
Western Bulldogs by 6
19:25 Sydney ($1.25) v St Kilda ($4.00) @ SCG
Sydney just continue to go from strength-to-strength and they seem to be unbeatable at the moment. Their midfield, their forward line, and their backline are running like a well-oiled machine.
The Saints were outclassed by the Bombers last week in what was a really disappointing performance after their win over the Tigers the week prior. The task of facing Sydney in Sydney looks like it’ll make it two losses in a row for the Saints,
We’ll take Sydney to win this one by a good margin.
Betting tip: Sydney 40+ @ $2.50 (BET NOW)
Sydney by 52
19:40 Fremantle ($1.87) v Hawthorn ($1.93) @ Domain Stadium
Fremantle were wasteful in their loss to the Eagles last week but get a chance to make amends at home again this week. Finals are not impossible for Freo yet, but they will have to win this game to keep those hopes alive.
The Hawks have found some late season form and were good again against the second-place Cats. The trip west is the big concern here but they have the better form of these two sides.
This will be a close one. We’ll take either team by less than 19.5 points as the betting play and take the Hawks for the win, for tipping purposes.
Betting tip: Either team by -19.5 @ $2.00 (BET NOW)
Hawthorn by 14
13:10 Richmond ($2.30) v Greater Western Sydney ($1.62) @ MCG
Richmond had a decent victory over the Lions last weekend but face a much tougher opposition this week. They are still several notches below the top sides at the moment and they will need to lift if they are to be any chance this week – they’re not out if it, but it’s a big ask.
GWS suffered a narrow loss to the red-hot Swans last week and we can’t judge them too harshly for that. At their best, GWS will win this one with ease.
We think Richmond will lift to the challenge this week but GWS will come away with the victory.
Betting tip: GWS 1-39 @ $2.10 (BET NOW)
GWS by 18
15:20 Collingwood ($2.25) v West Coast ($1.66) @ Etihad Stadium
Collingwood will be quietly happy with the away win over the Suns last week but they may have lost Pendelbury for the remainder of the season due to a broken finger. Needless to say, he is a big loss for the Pies this week.
West Coast have really struggled in Melbourne this year and will be desperate to win this one to help secure a finals birth. If West Coast can bring their current form to Melbourne, they win. If not, the Pies are a big chance.
We’ll tip this to be a close one and take either team to win by less than 19.5 points.
Betting tip: Either team by -19.5 @ $2.20 (BET NOW)
West Coast by 14
16:40 Brisbane ($2.45) v Carlton ($1.56) @ Gabba
Both teams are at the bottom of the ladder but are not playing the worst football at the moment and both teams should improve sharply over the next couple of years.
Brisbane are showing good signs late in the season and will need their midfield to fire this week. Zorko was particularly quiet last week and will want to play a big game.
Carlton have been extremely competitive this season even though they’ve only managed five wins. They are good at the contested ball and their aggression should get them over the line against the Lions.
Expect a good game and Carlton to get the win.
Betting tip: Carlton 1-39 @ $2.20 (BET NOW)
Carlton by 28
Round 18 AFL multi bet:
We are going with a four-leg multi this week and will keep the betting stake at $50:
Adelaide 1-39 @ $2.20
Essendon 40+ @ $2.20
Sydney 40+ @ $2.50
GWS 1-39 @ $2.10
Total odds = $25.41
A $50 wager would pay out $1,270.50 at current odds, if successful.
Once again, all odds are with Sportsbet – our No. 1 rated bookmaker. New signups can claim a $501* bonus bet with Sportsbet by clicking HERE.