Every week seems to be a do-or-die week for a few teams and round 17 of the 2017 AFL season is no exception!
With only seven matches left in one of the closest home and away seasons in a long time, every game could change the ladder and help decide who finishes top 4 and who misses out on playing finals.
We’ve found some value again in the margin markets and we like a couple of tri bet options where we think the games will be too close to call.
At the bottom of our match previews you can find our 5-leg $51 multi for the week!
Read on to find out what we like for round 17 of the 2017 AFL season!
Please note: these are our early picks prior to team announcements on Thursday night. Check back on Thursday night for any changes to the tips due to any shock ins and outs – there could be a few important ones this week.
All odds are with Sportsbet – our No. 1 rated bookmaker. New signups can claim a $501* bonus bet with Sportsbet by clicking HERE.
19:50 St Kilda ($1.74) v Essendon ($2.10) @ Etihad Stadium
Friday night footy is back in Melbourne this week with a must-win game for the Bombers, while a Saints win will further cement their spot in the top 8.
The Saints were simply outstanding last week against the Tigers with the game all over at half time. They have had their ups and downs this season and St. Kilda will want to make it back-to-back strong wins if they are to play a serious role in September.
The Bombers were also back to their best last week and came away with a solid victory over Collingwood, despite some of their stars having quieter games. Essendon will need to lift again, but they are up to this.
Essendon are really playing for their season and we think they’ll grind out the win.
Betting tip: Essendon 1-39 @ $2.63 (BET NOW)
Essendon by 14
13:45 Geelong ($1.50) v Hawthorn ($2.60) @ MCG
Geelong got back to their winning ways with an 85 point victory over the Lions at the Gabba. Dangerfield continues to storm towards back-to-back Brownlow Medals and will need to put in another big performance this Saturday.
The Hawks are still clinging onto finals hopes after drawing with GWS in Tasmania last week. They are back to playing like the team we have knoen over the past 10 years and it would be an absolute miracle if they are to come back and play finals this season – write them off at your own risk.
These two sides have played in some absolute classics over the past decade and this could be another one! We’ll be leaning towards Geelong in a very tight one.
Betting tip: Geelong 1-39 @ $2.20 (BET NOW)
Geelong by 12
14:10 Port Adelaide ($1.17) v North Melbourne ($5.10) @ Adelaide Oval
Port Adelaide played a brilliant second half last week against West Coast to come away with a solid 32 point victory. They are back at home this week and a win here will shore up their position in the 8 and make them a big chance of securing a top 4 spot.
We’ve tipped the Roos a lot this year and they’ve come close every time but we can’t keep tipping them when we think it’ll be a close game – they simply lack what it takes to close out a tight game. We expect them to put up another good fight and make the scoreline respectable, but they can’t win this one (now watch them make me eat my words!).
We’ll take Port to win and we’re liking the 1-39 margin.
Betting tip: Port Adelaide 1-39 @ $2.37 (BET NOW)
Port Adelaide by 32
16:35 Gold Coast ($1.80) v Collingwood ($2.02) @ Metricon Stadium
The Suns were demolished by the Swans last week but are back at home this week against easier opposition. Gary Ablett is a chance to return so keep an eye on his name in team announcements this week.
The Pies were outclassed by the Bombers last Saturday at the MCG and have all but killed their finals hopes. They will at least want to finish off the season on a strong note and they are a big chance to score an away victory here.
We’ll tip the Suns to get the win in what should be a close battle, but we’ll take the points overs as the betting option.
Betting tip: total match points over 184.5 @ $1.90 (BET NOW)
Gold Coast by 20
19:25 Greater Western Sydney ($1.74) v Sydney ($2.10) @ Spotless Stadium
What a great match for a Saturday night – a local Sydney derby and two of the form teams of a the competition going head-to-head!
GWS have now (unbelievably!) played in two consecutive draws and this game looks like it’ll be another tight one. They are back at home this week and the Sydney derby always brings out the best in both teams.
Sydney are the form team of the comp and are charging towards finals. They will be eyeing a top 4 finish with a win here. Josh Kennedy should be back in the side this week so keep an eye on team announcements.
Tough game to pick H2H but we’ll go with the Swans to continue their run. For betting purposes, we’ll take either team to win by -19.5 @ $2.00 and this is one of our best picks for the round.
Betting tip: Either team by -19.5 @ $2.00 (BET NOW)
Sydney by 16
19:40 Melbourne ($3.00) v Adelaide ($1.39) @ TIO Stadium
The Demons continue to find a way to get wins while some of their best players are still out of the side. This puts them in a great position for when they get some of their stars back in the later rounds of the home and away season.
Adelaide (the ladder leaders) were back to their best in last Friday’s demolition of the Bulldogs and will be looking to play some more consistent football in the lead up to finals.
This game is being played in Darwin and it could be a big factor in the end. The Demons had a good win here earlier in the year and will make Adelaide really work for the win.
We’ll tip Adelaide to win but expect it to be a tough match. Adelaide do not want to take the undermanned Demons lightly.
Betting tip: Adelaide 1-39 @ $2.10 (BET NOW)
Adelaide by 22
13:10 Richmond ($1.16) v Brisbane ($5.30) @ Etihad Stadium
Richmond had a chance to establish themselves in the top 4 last weekend but were embarrassed by the Saints last Saturday night. The Tigers will be desperate to make amends for that performance by having a good win over against the Lions this weekend.
The young Brisbane side are continuing to show good signs of what may be in the coming years and cannot be underestimated. If the Tigers are not at the top of their game, the Lions could capitalise.
We have to tip Richmond for the win but will take the overs in match point betting as the betting play for this game.
Betting tip: total match points over 180.5 @ $1.90 (BET NOW)
Richmond by 38
15:20 Carlton ($2.45) v Western Bulldogs ($1.56) @ MCG
The Blues are really causing some headaches for quality opposition and they almost snatched victory against the Demons last week.
The Bulldogs put in a performance to forget against the Crows last week and this is now a must-win game for them if they are to keep their finals hopes alive.
There’s a lot to like about the way Carlton is playing and these two teams match up really well on paper. For tipping purposes, we’ll go with Dogs, but for the betting play we’ll take either team by less than 20 points.
Betting tip: Either team by -19.5 @ $2.10 (BET NOW)
Western Bulldogs by 10
16:40 Fremantle ($2.45) v West Coast ($1.56) @ Domain Stadium
Fremantle were extremely lucky to get the win against the Roos last week and it kept their finals hopes alive. This week is a must-win game again, against an opposition who is just above them on the ladder.
West Coast will be disappointed with their second half fade out last week against Port Adelaide and will be looking to put in a four quarter effort this week.
The West Australian local derby is always a tough one to pick and this is no exception. Either team on their day is capable of winning this but we have to side with West Coast who look like they will regain their Josh Kennedy for the match (big watch on team announcements!).
West Coast 1-39 looks like a good margin play.
Betting tip: West Coast 1-39 @ $2.10 (BET NOW)
West Coast by 22
Round 17 AFL multi bet:
We are going with a five-leg multi this week and will increase our betting stake to $50:
Essendon 1-39 @ $2.63
Geelong 1-39 @ $2.20
GWS v Sydney – either team by -19.5 @ $2.00
Adelaide 1-39 @ $2.10
West Coast 1-39 @ $2.10
Total odds = $51.03
A $50 wager would pay out $2,551.63 at current odds, if successful.
Once again, all odds are with Sportsbet – our No. 1 rated bookmaker. New signups can claim a $501* bonus bet with Sportsbet by clicking HERE.